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    GRE每日閱讀歐洲大國(guó)間的政治博弈
    Euro crisis——The end of the euro’s Indian summer
    歐洲危機(jī)：歐元區(qū)小陽(yáng)春之末
    After a few sunny weeks, a political and economicstorm is battering the euro zone once again
    度過(guò)幾個(gè)星期的好日子后，政治經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)暴再度席卷歐元區(qū)
    THE sugar-rush brought on by the European Central Bank’s pledge to intervene in bondmarkets to help troubled euro-zone countries—some diplomats call it “Mario Draghi’s ice cream”—was bound to fade at some point. But nobody expected it to fade quite so suddenly thisweek.
    歐洲中央銀行承諾干預(yù)債券市場(chǎng)用來(lái)幫助歐元區(qū)國(guó)家擺脫困境，這些“短暫的春天”被一些外交官稱為“馬里奧.德拉吉(Mario Draghi)的冰淇淋”，在某種程度上注定會(huì)失效的。但沒有人預(yù)料到它在本周消退得如突然。
    Anti-austerity protests in Spain and GREece, uncertainty over their bail-out terms, theresurgence of Catalan secessionism, the likely departure of Mario Monti as Italy’s primeminister next year, obstacles to creating a credible banking union (see Charlemagne) and adarkening economic outlook all combined to dispel hope that the euro zone was out of thewoods. Spanish and Italian bond yields shot back up and European stockmarkets fell.
    西班牙和希臘的對(duì)緊縮的抗議活動(dòng),他們獲得救助條件的不確定性,加泰羅尼亞分離主義的復(fù)蘇,可能離任的馬意大利總理Mario Monti(馬里奧·蒙蒂)，以及建立一個(gè)安全可靠銀行聯(lián)盟(見Charlemagne專欄)的諸多障礙和經(jīng)濟(jì)前景的暗淡無(wú)光，所有這些不利因素都預(yù)示著歐元區(qū)走出困境的希望越來(lái)越渺茫。西班牙和意大利兩國(guó)債券收益雖有所回升，但歐洲股市整體卻已跌入谷底。
    The summer’s panic about the euro zone had been assuaged by the ECB’s announcement ofplans to buy unlimited amounts of short-dated debt of vulnerable countries such as Spainand Italy. This backstop would depend on their governments first seeking assistance from theeuro-zone rescue funds, and then submitting to a formal, externally monitored reformprogramme.
    今年夏天和歐元有關(guān)的恐慌，在歐洲央行的一份申明中——計(jì)劃向西班牙、意大利等經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)較為嚴(yán)重的國(guó)家，購(gòu)買大量其無(wú)限的短期債務(wù)，使得其困境有所緩解。這一擔(dān)保會(huì)取決于他們的政府首先向歐元區(qū)救助基金申請(qǐng)幫助, 然后提交一份正式并接受國(guó)外監(jiān)管的改革計(jì)劃。
    Both out of national pride, and because Germany does not want Spain to ask for more money,the Spanish government has hesitated about taking the ECB’s outstretched hand. BehindEuropean officials’ public praise for the deficit-cutting measures taken by Mariano Rajoy, theSpanish prime minister, there is dismay over his ineptness in handling the crisis, not least theever-changing estimates of the money needed to recapitalise Spain’s banks.
    這些都出自于民族自豪感,因?yàn)榈聡?guó)不希望西班牙借貸更多資金, 西班牙政府對(duì)于歐洲央行提供的資金幫助猶豫不定。在歐洲各國(guó)對(duì)于西班牙首相馬里亞諾·拉霍伊(Mariano Rajoy)的赤字削減政策一片贊揚(yáng)聲的背后，這位西班牙首相在處理這些危機(jī)時(shí)總是讓人們對(duì)他的無(wú)能感到失望，特別是在西班牙銀行重組所耗費(fèi)的資金的數(shù)目上，這個(gè)數(shù)字總是一而再再而三地發(fā)生改變。
    As The Economist went to press, Mr Rajoy was due to unveil a budget for next year and a newset of structural reforms, as well as the results of a detailed assessment of Spain’s bank-recapitalisation needs. These have been co-ordinated with European officials, perhaps to allowMr Rajoy to claim that Spain will face no fresh conditions beyond the ones he has announcedhimself. But the gains from any such choreography have been offset by clashes on thestreets of Madrid during anti-austerity protests and by the resurgence of Catalan nationalism.Mr Rajoy’s attempt to rein in spending in Spain’s autonomous regions has prompted Artur Mas,the president of Catalonia, to call an election on November 25th, after his demand for more taxautonomy was rebuffed. Mr Mas is talking of holding a referendum on independence, whichcould throw Spain into a constitutional crisis on top of its economic one.
    正當(dāng)《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》印刷之時(shí),拉霍伊將公布一個(gè)下一年預(yù)算和一套新的結(jié)構(gòu)改革,以及一個(gè)西班牙的銀行資本重組的詳細(xì)的評(píng)估結(jié)果。這些都需要與歐洲官員協(xié)調(diào),也許是為了讓拉霍伊先生聲明,西班牙將不再對(duì)已聲明的條件外另加新的條件。但是，由于反緊縮抗議期間，馬德里街巷的沖突，及加泰羅尼亞民族主義的復(fù)蘇，任何預(yù)算之中的收益都已經(jīng)被抵消了。拉霍伊先生試圖控制在西班牙自治區(qū)的支出的想法，刺激到泰羅尼亞地區(qū)長(zhǎng)官Artur Mas ,在拉霍伊要求更多自治權(quán)遭到拒絕后，他提出11月25日舉行一次選舉的意見。而Artur Mas先生所提出的舉行獨(dú)立公投,可能使得西班牙不僅要面臨經(jīng)濟(jì)行危機(jī)，又即將陷入憲法危機(jī)。
    If Mr Rajoy’s stock in European capitals has fallen, that of Antonis Samaras, the Greek primeminister, has risen. Once reviled for resisting austerity while in opposition, the conservativeleader has, since his election in June, impressed fellow leaders with a new-found zeal for fiscaldiscipline and reform. Yet it will be hard to reconcile Mr Samaras’s call for an extra two yearsto bring down the deficit with creditors’ refusal to lend him more money, in effect a third bail-out.
    如果拉霍伊先生在歐洲各國(guó)政要的聲望已經(jīng)下跌,那么希臘總理Antonis Samaras將會(huì)逆勢(shì)上升。這位反對(duì)派保守黨領(lǐng)袖向來(lái)在抵制緊縮中被詬病,然而他在今年6月的選舉中上任以來(lái)財(cái)政紀(jì)律和改革上的果斷干練風(fēng)格, 給各派領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人留下了深刻的印象。然而，一方面Samaras要求延長(zhǎng)兩年時(shí)間以緩解財(cái)政赤字，另一方面希臘的債權(quán)人又拒絕繼續(xù)向其借貸資金(這其實(shí)是第三次援助計(jì)劃)。
    Mr Samaras is caught between the rescuers’ demands for more spending cuts and boiling angeron the streets. Police fired tear gas at hooded protesters hurling petrol bombs on September26th, the day of a general strike, while tens of thousands of demonstrators outside the Greekparliament shouted “EU, IMF Out!”. European officials say much now depends on whether, aftersome massaging of Greece’s figures, the IMF can be cajoled into declaring its gargantuan debtto be “sustainable”. The fund, for its part, is privately urging euro-zone countries to write offsome of their loans to Greece, but that is unlikely until after Germany’s election next year.
    Samaras 現(xiàn)在被夾在援助者要求更大程度地減少開支和希臘民眾對(duì)此要求沸騰的怒火之間。在9月26日這天的大罷工中，警察向蒙面投擲汽油炸彈的抗議者發(fā)射了催淚彈, 而成千上萬(wàn)的示威者在希臘議會(huì)大樓外高喊“歐盟、國(guó)際貨幣基金組織滾出去!”。歐洲官員表示,現(xiàn)在大部分取決于，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織經(jīng)過(guò)希臘的‘按摩’是否相信并宣布其龐大的債務(wù)是“可持續(xù)的”。該基金組織,就其本身而言,在私下敦促歐元區(qū)國(guó)家放棄他們對(duì)希臘的債權(quán),但是這到明年德國(guó)大選之前都是不可能的。
    In Italy there is nervousness about the course of still-fragile reforms after the technocraticprime minister, Mario Monti, declared that he would not seek to stay in office beyond generalelections due next spring. Mr Monti told CNN: “I think it’s important that the whole politicalgame resumes in Italy, hopefully with a higher degree of responsibility and maturity.” GivenItaly’s politics, and the reforms that Italy still has to undertake, that is asking a lot.
    而在意大利，學(xué)者型總理Mario Monti宣布在明年的大選中，將按照原計(jì)劃不會(huì)尋求連任，而舉國(guó)上下都對(duì)還未完成穩(wěn)定的改革進(jìn)程還有些擔(dān)心。Monti對(duì)CNN(美國(guó)有線新聞網(wǎng))稱: “在我看來(lái)，意大利政治博弈的重啟是很重要的，希望時(shí)機(jī)成熟的時(shí)候，會(huì)實(shí)行新的制度，與此同時(shí)還需要高度的責(zé)任感。”但是考慮到意大利政治現(xiàn)狀，和現(xiàn)在仍在進(jìn)行中的改革，這個(gè)似乎有點(diǎn)困難。
    Confidence in the future of the euro is hardly being helped by signs that Germany and othercreditor countries are backtracking on last June’s summit deal to create a new euro-zone banksupervisor and, thereafter, to recapitalise troubled banks directly, in countries such as Spainand Italy, with money from a euro-zone rescue fund. Along with the Netherlands and Finland,Germany now wants direct recapitalisation to exclude “legacy” assets. Karl Whelan, aprominent Irish economist, summed it up with a blog post headlined: “Germany to Spain andIreland: drop dead”.
    去年六月峰會(huì)上，德國(guó)和其他債權(quán)國(guó)達(dá)成創(chuàng)建一個(gè)新歐元區(qū)銀行監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的協(xié)議，并希望借此通過(guò)歐元區(qū)救助基金來(lái)直接重組西班牙、意大利等國(guó)的問題銀行。而今這些國(guó)家開始背棄這一協(xié)議，這一信號(hào)絲毫無(wú)助于增強(qiáng)大家對(duì)于歐元前景的信心，因此，就算有歐元區(qū)援助基金的貸款的幫助，但是對(duì)歐元區(qū)一些國(guó)家困難重重的銀行(比如西班牙和意大利)重組沒有什么直接性的幫助。除了荷蘭和芬蘭，現(xiàn)在德國(guó)也想通過(guò)直接資金重組，以沖減“遺留”下來(lái)的資產(chǎn)。一名著名的愛爾蘭經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家Karl Whelan用一篇博客的題目總結(jié)了這一切：“德國(guó)對(duì)西班牙和愛爾蘭說(shuō)：去你的”。
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