Dear Economist,
My best friend - single, male, Jewish, six-figure earner - has been interviewing like mad in order to escape a hellhole called Detroit. He has only had one job offer, albeit an excellent one （40 per cent salary increase） in LA. Thoroughlyfrustrated by the dating scene in Motown, he has decided to move.
I think he is being too hasty.
His final destination is surely New York, where the availability of dateable Jewishwomen is far greater. I am concerned that he won't be employable if he decides after a year that LA isn't really for him （it won't be）.
He's an intelligent person with desirable skills so I have no doubt that he will be able to secure a comparable job in NYC. It only takes time.
How do I convince him that he's making a mistake?
John, via e-mail
親愛的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家：
為了逃離地獄般的底特律，我的朋友——單身、男性、*人、年薪六位數(shù)——正在發(fā)瘋似地面試。他只得到了一份工作邀請，不過工作地點(diǎn)是在洛杉磯，待遇不錯(cuò)（比現(xiàn)在的薪水高40%）。由于對底特律的約會(huì)場所徹底失望，他決定離開。
我認(rèn)為他有些操之過急。
他最終的目的地當(dāng)然應(yīng)該是紐約，那里可以約會(huì)的*姑娘數(shù)量要多得多。我擔(dān)心，如果一年后他覺得洛杉磯并不十分適合他（我認(rèn)為肯定不適合他），他會(huì)無處可去。
他聰明過人而且才能出眾，因此我確信，他能夠在紐約找到一份條件相當(dāng)?shù)墓ぷ?。只是需要時(shí)間而已。
我怎么才能讓他相信他犯了一個(gè)錯(cuò)誤？
約翰
Dear John,
There is something in what you say. Real option theory states that you shouldn't naively take the first option with a positive net present value. Better options may come along later, and taking the first option will precludethem.
Your friend must not exercise his option too soon.
However, the foundations of this theory need to be questioned. It assumes that the first choice really is irreversible, and that inaction would keep options open. But is it true that moving to LA will cut off a later move to New York? Even if so, is time in Detroit really keeping open the window of opportunity, rather than spreading a stain on the resume? I am not so sure.
親愛的約翰：
你說的有一定道理。實(shí)物期權(quán)理論認(rèn)為，不應(yīng)天真地選擇第一個(gè)凈現(xiàn)值為正的方案。后面可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)更好的選擇，選擇第一個(gè)將錯(cuò)失以后的機(jī)會(huì)。
你的朋友不應(yīng)過早行使選擇權(quán)。
然而，這一理論的基礎(chǔ)值得商榷。該理論假設(shè)，第一個(gè)選擇不可撤銷，而“無所作為”還會(huì)有其它選擇?？墒牵w往洛杉磯真的會(huì)阻礙他日后遷往紐約嗎？即便如此，留在底特律真的會(huì)讓機(jī)會(huì)之門敞開，而不是在他的履歷上增加一個(gè)污點(diǎn)嗎？我不太確定。
英語生活中最常說的900句
Most important, even real option theory admits that you should take the first offer if it is good enough. A 40 per cent raise is plenty. Are you trying to keep the dateable women for yourself?
最重要的是，甚至連實(shí)物期權(quán)理論都承認(rèn)，如果第一個(gè)工作機(jī)會(huì)足夠好，你就應(yīng)當(dāng)接受。40%的加薪幅度十分可觀。你想把可以約會(huì)的姑娘都留給自己嗎？
My best friend - single, male, Jewish, six-figure earner - has been interviewing like mad in order to escape a hellhole called Detroit. He has only had one job offer, albeit an excellent one （40 per cent salary increase） in LA. Thoroughlyfrustrated by the dating scene in Motown, he has decided to move.
I think he is being too hasty.
His final destination is surely New York, where the availability of dateable Jewishwomen is far greater. I am concerned that he won't be employable if he decides after a year that LA isn't really for him （it won't be）.
He's an intelligent person with desirable skills so I have no doubt that he will be able to secure a comparable job in NYC. It only takes time.
How do I convince him that he's making a mistake?
John, via e-mail
親愛的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家：
為了逃離地獄般的底特律，我的朋友——單身、男性、*人、年薪六位數(shù)——正在發(fā)瘋似地面試。他只得到了一份工作邀請，不過工作地點(diǎn)是在洛杉磯，待遇不錯(cuò)（比現(xiàn)在的薪水高40%）。由于對底特律的約會(huì)場所徹底失望，他決定離開。
我認(rèn)為他有些操之過急。
他最終的目的地當(dāng)然應(yīng)該是紐約，那里可以約會(huì)的*姑娘數(shù)量要多得多。我擔(dān)心，如果一年后他覺得洛杉磯并不十分適合他（我認(rèn)為肯定不適合他），他會(huì)無處可去。
他聰明過人而且才能出眾，因此我確信，他能夠在紐約找到一份條件相當(dāng)?shù)墓ぷ?。只是需要時(shí)間而已。
我怎么才能讓他相信他犯了一個(gè)錯(cuò)誤？
約翰
Dear John,
There is something in what you say. Real option theory states that you shouldn't naively take the first option with a positive net present value. Better options may come along later, and taking the first option will precludethem.
Your friend must not exercise his option too soon.
However, the foundations of this theory need to be questioned. It assumes that the first choice really is irreversible, and that inaction would keep options open. But is it true that moving to LA will cut off a later move to New York? Even if so, is time in Detroit really keeping open the window of opportunity, rather than spreading a stain on the resume? I am not so sure.
親愛的約翰：
你說的有一定道理。實(shí)物期權(quán)理論認(rèn)為，不應(yīng)天真地選擇第一個(gè)凈現(xiàn)值為正的方案。后面可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)更好的選擇，選擇第一個(gè)將錯(cuò)失以后的機(jī)會(huì)。
你的朋友不應(yīng)過早行使選擇權(quán)。
然而，這一理論的基礎(chǔ)值得商榷。該理論假設(shè)，第一個(gè)選擇不可撤銷，而“無所作為”還會(huì)有其它選擇?？墒牵w往洛杉磯真的會(huì)阻礙他日后遷往紐約嗎？即便如此，留在底特律真的會(huì)讓機(jī)會(huì)之門敞開，而不是在他的履歷上增加一個(gè)污點(diǎn)嗎？我不太確定。
英語生活中最常說的900句
Most important, even real option theory admits that you should take the first offer if it is good enough. A 40 per cent raise is plenty. Are you trying to keep the dateable women for yourself?
最重要的是，甚至連實(shí)物期權(quán)理論都承認(rèn)，如果第一個(gè)工作機(jī)會(huì)足夠好，你就應(yīng)當(dāng)接受。40%的加薪幅度十分可觀。你想把可以約會(huì)的姑娘都留給自己嗎？