UNITED NATIONS - The world's population will likely reach 9.2 billion in 2050, with virtually（實質(zhì)上,實際上） all new growth occurring in the developing world, a U.N. report said Tuesday.
According to the U.N. Population Division's 2006 estimate, the world's population will likely increase by 2.5 billion people over the next 43 years from the current 6.7 billion — a rise equivalent（相等的,相當(dāng)?shù)模?to the number of people in the world in 1950.
Hania Zlotnik, the division's director, said an important change in the new population estimate is a decrease in expected deaths from AIDS because of the rising use of anti-retroviral drugs and a downward revision of the prevalence of the disease in some countries.
The new report estimates 32 million fewer deaths from AIDS during the 2005-2020 period in the 62 most affected countries, compared with the previous U.N. estimate in 2004.
This change contributed to the slightly higher world population estimate of 9.2 billion in 2050 than the 9.1 billion figure in the 2004 estimate, the report said.
The report also said most population growth will take place in less developed countries, whose numbers are projected to rise from 5.4 billion in 2007 to 7.9 billion in 2050. The populations of poor countries like Afghanistan, Burundi, Congo, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Niger, East Timor and Uganda are projected to at least triple（三倍的） by mid-century.
By contrast, the total population of richer countries is expected to remain largely unchanged at 1.2 billion. The report said the figure would be lower without expected migration of people from poorer countries, averaging 2.3 million annually（一年一次）.
According to the report, 46 countries are expected to lose population by mid-century, including Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea and most of the former Soviet republics.
Zlotnik said most countries in Asia and Latin America have reached the "relatively beneficial stage" of having more working-age adults than children or elderly in their populations, "and they will remain in that stage for at least two more decades."
But their populations will then start to age, heading in the same direction as Europe and North America, she said.
"Europe is the only region at this moment where the number of people aged 60 and over has already surpassed the number of children," she said. "We expect that Asia and Latin America will have by 2050 an age distribution that is very similar to the one that Europe has today."
African countries will have an increase of working-age adults by 2050, but the continent's overall population will also nearly double in that time, Zlotnik said.
"So it is the continent that is going to have to absorb（吸收,吸引） a very high increase, and it will have to absorb it at levels of development that are the very lowest that we have in this world," she said.
中文鏈接：（并非全文翻譯）
聯(lián)合國預(yù)計，在未來43年內(nèi)，世界60歲及以上的老年人口可能增加近兩倍，到2050年達(dá)到20億人，占全球總?cè)丝诘募s四分之一。
世界人口將增至92億
聯(lián)合國經(jīng)濟及社會事務(wù)部人口司在“世界人口展望”的2006年修訂本中預(yù)測，未來43年世界人口將從現(xiàn)有的67億增加至92億，增加幅度超過三分之一。
該報告預(yù)測，世界人口會如所預(yù)料的在2050年超越90億大關(guān)，不過，它指出，較發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)的人口數(shù)量，不會出現(xiàn)太大的改變，但這些地區(qū)的人口卻會急速老化。
該報告指出，世界人口的增長會來自較落后地區(qū)，年輕人也會集中于這些落后地區(qū)，特別是世界最貧窮的50個國家。目前，這些落后國家的人口還很年輕，在可預(yù)見的未來預(yù)料只會適度老化。其他發(fā)展中國家的人口，預(yù)料也會同發(fā)達(dá)國家一樣，進(jìn)入急速老化的階段之中。
該報告指出，發(fā)達(dá)國家現(xiàn)有的生育率，不足以達(dá)到人口替代水平，這一趨勢將持續(xù)下去，而落后國家的生育率也會下降，但仍比世界其他地區(qū)來得高。
整體而言，從2007年至2050年，發(fā)達(dá)國家人口將大致維持在12億人的水平，但世界最落后的50個國家的人口卻很可能增加超過一倍，從2007年的8000萬增至2050年的17億；其他發(fā)展中國家的人口增長速度將保持強勁但速度較慢，從46億增加至62億。
在個別國家方面，包括德國、意大利、日本、韓國、大部分的前蘇聯(lián)加盟共和國和好幾個小島國在內(nèi)的46個國家，到2050年的人口預(yù)料將比現(xiàn)在少，但阿富汗、布隆迪、剛果、幾內(nèi)亞比紹、利比里亞、尼日爾、東帝汶和烏干達(dá)的人口未來40年內(nèi)將增加兩倍。
報告也發(fā)現(xiàn)，世界未來40年的25億人口增幅當(dāng)中，將近半數(shù)將來自印度、尼日利亞、巴基斯坦、剛果、埃塞俄比亞、美國、孟加拉和中國。
盡管移民壁壘重重，但預(yù)料窮國人民移居至富國情況將能緩解世界勞動力短缺問題。
According to the U.N. Population Division's 2006 estimate, the world's population will likely increase by 2.5 billion people over the next 43 years from the current 6.7 billion — a rise equivalent（相等的,相當(dāng)?shù)模?to the number of people in the world in 1950.
Hania Zlotnik, the division's director, said an important change in the new population estimate is a decrease in expected deaths from AIDS because of the rising use of anti-retroviral drugs and a downward revision of the prevalence of the disease in some countries.
The new report estimates 32 million fewer deaths from AIDS during the 2005-2020 period in the 62 most affected countries, compared with the previous U.N. estimate in 2004.
This change contributed to the slightly higher world population estimate of 9.2 billion in 2050 than the 9.1 billion figure in the 2004 estimate, the report said.
The report also said most population growth will take place in less developed countries, whose numbers are projected to rise from 5.4 billion in 2007 to 7.9 billion in 2050. The populations of poor countries like Afghanistan, Burundi, Congo, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Niger, East Timor and Uganda are projected to at least triple（三倍的） by mid-century.
By contrast, the total population of richer countries is expected to remain largely unchanged at 1.2 billion. The report said the figure would be lower without expected migration of people from poorer countries, averaging 2.3 million annually（一年一次）.
According to the report, 46 countries are expected to lose population by mid-century, including Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea and most of the former Soviet republics.
Zlotnik said most countries in Asia and Latin America have reached the "relatively beneficial stage" of having more working-age adults than children or elderly in their populations, "and they will remain in that stage for at least two more decades."
But their populations will then start to age, heading in the same direction as Europe and North America, she said.
"Europe is the only region at this moment where the number of people aged 60 and over has already surpassed the number of children," she said. "We expect that Asia and Latin America will have by 2050 an age distribution that is very similar to the one that Europe has today."
African countries will have an increase of working-age adults by 2050, but the continent's overall population will also nearly double in that time, Zlotnik said.
"So it is the continent that is going to have to absorb（吸收,吸引） a very high increase, and it will have to absorb it at levels of development that are the very lowest that we have in this world," she said.
中文鏈接：（并非全文翻譯）
聯(lián)合國預(yù)計，在未來43年內(nèi)，世界60歲及以上的老年人口可能增加近兩倍，到2050年達(dá)到20億人，占全球總?cè)丝诘募s四分之一。
世界人口將增至92億
聯(lián)合國經(jīng)濟及社會事務(wù)部人口司在“世界人口展望”的2006年修訂本中預(yù)測，未來43年世界人口將從現(xiàn)有的67億增加至92億，增加幅度超過三分之一。
該報告預(yù)測，世界人口會如所預(yù)料的在2050年超越90億大關(guān)，不過，它指出，較發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)的人口數(shù)量，不會出現(xiàn)太大的改變，但這些地區(qū)的人口卻會急速老化。
該報告指出，世界人口的增長會來自較落后地區(qū)，年輕人也會集中于這些落后地區(qū)，特別是世界最貧窮的50個國家。目前，這些落后國家的人口還很年輕，在可預(yù)見的未來預(yù)料只會適度老化。其他發(fā)展中國家的人口，預(yù)料也會同發(fā)達(dá)國家一樣，進(jìn)入急速老化的階段之中。
該報告指出，發(fā)達(dá)國家現(xiàn)有的生育率，不足以達(dá)到人口替代水平，這一趨勢將持續(xù)下去，而落后國家的生育率也會下降，但仍比世界其他地區(qū)來得高。
整體而言，從2007年至2050年，發(fā)達(dá)國家人口將大致維持在12億人的水平，但世界最落后的50個國家的人口卻很可能增加超過一倍，從2007年的8000萬增至2050年的17億；其他發(fā)展中國家的人口增長速度將保持強勁但速度較慢，從46億增加至62億。
在個別國家方面，包括德國、意大利、日本、韓國、大部分的前蘇聯(lián)加盟共和國和好幾個小島國在內(nèi)的46個國家，到2050年的人口預(yù)料將比現(xiàn)在少，但阿富汗、布隆迪、剛果、幾內(nèi)亞比紹、利比里亞、尼日爾、東帝汶和烏干達(dá)的人口未來40年內(nèi)將增加兩倍。
報告也發(fā)現(xiàn)，世界未來40年的25億人口增幅當(dāng)中，將近半數(shù)將來自印度、尼日利亞、巴基斯坦、剛果、埃塞俄比亞、美國、孟加拉和中國。
盡管移民壁壘重重，但預(yù)料窮國人民移居至富國情況將能緩解世界勞動力短缺問題。