隨著大宗商品價(jià)格連續(xù)第5年迅猛上漲，礦業(yè)企業(yè)高管們比以往更為樂(lè)觀。
As the boom in commodities prices stretches into its fifth year, mining company executives are more bullish than ever.
力拓(Rio Tinto)是最新一家預(yù)測(cè)金屬價(jià)格前景走強(qiáng)的公司，并且在用實(shí)際行動(dòng)證明自己的觀點(diǎn)。上周，這家英國(guó)礦業(yè)集團(tuán)首席執(zhí)行官艾博年(Tom Albanese)拋棄力拓的謹(jǐn)慎傳統(tǒng)，以380億美元協(xié)議收購(gòu)加拿大鋁業(yè)(Alcan)，成為采礦業(yè)迄今規(guī)模的收購(gòu)。
Rio Tinto is the latest company to predict a strong outlook for metals prices - and is putting its money where its mouth is. Tom Albanese, the UK mining group's new chief executive, last week cast aside Rio's reputation for caution with a $38bn (€27.5bn, ￡18.5bn) agreed offer for Alcan, the Canadian aluminium producer, in the largest takeover bid the mining industry has seen.
一家向來(lái)置身于并購(gòu)風(fēng)潮之外的企業(yè)，決定提出一個(gè)如此雄心勃勃的報(bào)價(jià)，這一事實(shí)或許會(huì)讓投資者放心，這種繁榮局面不會(huì)很快結(jié)束。此舉還將給英美資源集團(tuán)(Anglo American)、斯特拉塔(Xstrata)和必和必拓(BHP Billiton)等競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手構(gòu)成壓力，迫使它們也拿出數(shù)十億美元以上規(guī)模的交易。
The fact that a company that usually kept out of the mergers and acquisitions fray decided to launch such an ambitious bid may give investors reassurance that the boom is not about to end. It will also put pressure on rivals such as Anglo American, Xstrata and BHP Billiton to unveil their own multi-billion-dollar deals.
力拓的善意收購(gòu)報(bào)價(jià)規(guī)模，超過(guò)了競(jìng)購(gòu)加拿大鋁業(yè)的對(duì)手--美國(guó)鋁業(yè)(Alcoa)早些時(shí)候提出的275億美元敵意收購(gòu)出價(jià)。當(dāng)被問(wèn)及如何證明比競(jìng)購(gòu)對(duì)手高出33%的收購(gòu)報(bào)價(jià)是合理的，艾博年表示："這全是因?yàn)橹袊?guó)。"
Rio's friendly bid trumped an earlier hostile $27.5bn offer from Alcan's US rival Alcoa. When asked how he could justify paying a premium of 33 per cent to Alcoa's bid, Mr Albanese said: "It's all about China."
中國(guó)強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，及其對(duì)銅、鐵礦石和鋁等原材料的強(qiáng)烈需求，提供了大宗商品價(jià)格在過(guò)去5年迅速上漲的基礎(chǔ)。此外，由于熟練工人和鉆探機(jī)等專業(yè)設(shè)備都面臨短缺，新礦開發(fā)時(shí)間超過(guò)預(yù)期，也推高了價(jià)格。
China's strong economic growth and its hunger for raw materials such as copper, iron ore and aluminium have provided the foundations for sharp rises in commodities prices over the past five years. Prices have also been driven higher by new mines taking longer than expected to develop, because both skilled workers and specialist equipment such as drills have been in short supply.
礦業(yè)高管們表示，金屬短缺和中國(guó)對(duì)金屬的需求，在短期內(nèi)都不會(huì)發(fā)生變化，而印度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)將為大宗商品價(jià)格提供進(jìn)一步支撐。他們?nèi)找嬷鲝垼据喆笞谏唐分芷谑聦?shí)上是一個(gè)"超級(jí)周期"，即多年價(jià)格高企，上一次發(fā)生在上世紀(jì)60年代的日本工業(yè)化時(shí)期。
Mining executives say that neither the shortages of metals nor China's demand for them will change any time soon - and that the growth of India will provide further support for commodities prices. They increasingly argue that this commodities cycle is in fact a "super-cycle" - a long period of higher prices last seen in the 1960s, when Japan was industrialising.
此外，礦業(yè)企業(yè)開始將超級(jí)周期理論當(dāng)作大膽并購(gòu)的依據(jù)。正如力拓對(duì)加拿大鋁業(yè)的競(jìng)購(gòu)報(bào)價(jià)所示，即便是向來(lái)保守的企業(yè)，也已愿意為收購(gòu)高質(zhì)量資產(chǎn)支付高價(jià)。
Moreover, mining companies are starting to use the super- cycle theory as a rationale for a more aggressive stance on mergers and acquisitions. As demonstrated by Rio's bid for Alcan, even traditionally conservative companies are prepared to pay up to secure high-quality assets.
但是，分析師對(duì)大宗商品價(jià)格前景不那么有信心?；ㄆ旒瘓F(tuán)(Citigroup)最近表示，根據(jù)該集團(tuán)對(duì)鋁價(jià)的長(zhǎng)期預(yù)測(cè)，收購(gòu)加拿大鋁業(yè)只能小幅提高力拓的每股收益。花旗集團(tuán)表示："我們需要假設(shè)鋁價(jià)未來(lái)幾年內(nèi)在每磅1.26美元以上，并且長(zhǎng)期價(jià)格在每磅1美元，這筆交易才劃算，而我們目前對(duì)鋁的周期價(jià)格估計(jì)是每磅1.10美元，長(zhǎng)期價(jià)格為80美分。"
But analysts are less confident about the outlook for commodities prices. This week Citigroup said the takeover of Alcan would only slightly improve Rio's earnings per share, based on the bank's long-term forecasts for the aluminium price. "We need to assume aluminium prices of more than $1.26 per pound for the next few years and a long-term price of $1 per pound to make this deal work. Our current assumptions are for cyclical prices of $1.10 per pound and a long-term price of 80 cents," it said.
As the boom in commodities prices stretches into its fifth year, mining company executives are more bullish than ever.
力拓(Rio Tinto)是最新一家預(yù)測(cè)金屬價(jià)格前景走強(qiáng)的公司，并且在用實(shí)際行動(dòng)證明自己的觀點(diǎn)。上周，這家英國(guó)礦業(yè)集團(tuán)首席執(zhí)行官艾博年(Tom Albanese)拋棄力拓的謹(jǐn)慎傳統(tǒng)，以380億美元協(xié)議收購(gòu)加拿大鋁業(yè)(Alcan)，成為采礦業(yè)迄今規(guī)模的收購(gòu)。
Rio Tinto is the latest company to predict a strong outlook for metals prices - and is putting its money where its mouth is. Tom Albanese, the UK mining group's new chief executive, last week cast aside Rio's reputation for caution with a $38bn (€27.5bn, ￡18.5bn) agreed offer for Alcan, the Canadian aluminium producer, in the largest takeover bid the mining industry has seen.
一家向來(lái)置身于并購(gòu)風(fēng)潮之外的企業(yè)，決定提出一個(gè)如此雄心勃勃的報(bào)價(jià)，這一事實(shí)或許會(huì)讓投資者放心，這種繁榮局面不會(huì)很快結(jié)束。此舉還將給英美資源集團(tuán)(Anglo American)、斯特拉塔(Xstrata)和必和必拓(BHP Billiton)等競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手構(gòu)成壓力，迫使它們也拿出數(shù)十億美元以上規(guī)模的交易。
The fact that a company that usually kept out of the mergers and acquisitions fray decided to launch such an ambitious bid may give investors reassurance that the boom is not about to end. It will also put pressure on rivals such as Anglo American, Xstrata and BHP Billiton to unveil their own multi-billion-dollar deals.
力拓的善意收購(gòu)報(bào)價(jià)規(guī)模，超過(guò)了競(jìng)購(gòu)加拿大鋁業(yè)的對(duì)手--美國(guó)鋁業(yè)(Alcoa)早些時(shí)候提出的275億美元敵意收購(gòu)出價(jià)。當(dāng)被問(wèn)及如何證明比競(jìng)購(gòu)對(duì)手高出33%的收購(gòu)報(bào)價(jià)是合理的，艾博年表示："這全是因?yàn)橹袊?guó)。"
Rio's friendly bid trumped an earlier hostile $27.5bn offer from Alcan's US rival Alcoa. When asked how he could justify paying a premium of 33 per cent to Alcoa's bid, Mr Albanese said: "It's all about China."
中國(guó)強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，及其對(duì)銅、鐵礦石和鋁等原材料的強(qiáng)烈需求，提供了大宗商品價(jià)格在過(guò)去5年迅速上漲的基礎(chǔ)。此外，由于熟練工人和鉆探機(jī)等專業(yè)設(shè)備都面臨短缺，新礦開發(fā)時(shí)間超過(guò)預(yù)期，也推高了價(jià)格。
China's strong economic growth and its hunger for raw materials such as copper, iron ore and aluminium have provided the foundations for sharp rises in commodities prices over the past five years. Prices have also been driven higher by new mines taking longer than expected to develop, because both skilled workers and specialist equipment such as drills have been in short supply.
礦業(yè)高管們表示，金屬短缺和中國(guó)對(duì)金屬的需求，在短期內(nèi)都不會(huì)發(fā)生變化，而印度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)將為大宗商品價(jià)格提供進(jìn)一步支撐。他們?nèi)找嬷鲝垼据喆笞谏唐分芷谑聦?shí)上是一個(gè)"超級(jí)周期"，即多年價(jià)格高企，上一次發(fā)生在上世紀(jì)60年代的日本工業(yè)化時(shí)期。
Mining executives say that neither the shortages of metals nor China's demand for them will change any time soon - and that the growth of India will provide further support for commodities prices. They increasingly argue that this commodities cycle is in fact a "super-cycle" - a long period of higher prices last seen in the 1960s, when Japan was industrialising.
此外，礦業(yè)企業(yè)開始將超級(jí)周期理論當(dāng)作大膽并購(gòu)的依據(jù)。正如力拓對(duì)加拿大鋁業(yè)的競(jìng)購(gòu)報(bào)價(jià)所示，即便是向來(lái)保守的企業(yè)，也已愿意為收購(gòu)高質(zhì)量資產(chǎn)支付高價(jià)。
Moreover, mining companies are starting to use the super- cycle theory as a rationale for a more aggressive stance on mergers and acquisitions. As demonstrated by Rio's bid for Alcan, even traditionally conservative companies are prepared to pay up to secure high-quality assets.
但是，分析師對(duì)大宗商品價(jià)格前景不那么有信心?；ㄆ旒瘓F(tuán)(Citigroup)最近表示，根據(jù)該集團(tuán)對(duì)鋁價(jià)的長(zhǎng)期預(yù)測(cè)，收購(gòu)加拿大鋁業(yè)只能小幅提高力拓的每股收益。花旗集團(tuán)表示："我們需要假設(shè)鋁價(jià)未來(lái)幾年內(nèi)在每磅1.26美元以上，并且長(zhǎng)期價(jià)格在每磅1美元，這筆交易才劃算，而我們目前對(duì)鋁的周期價(jià)格估計(jì)是每磅1.10美元，長(zhǎng)期價(jià)格為80美分。"
But analysts are less confident about the outlook for commodities prices. This week Citigroup said the takeover of Alcan would only slightly improve Rio's earnings per share, based on the bank's long-term forecasts for the aluminium price. "We need to assume aluminium prices of more than $1.26 per pound for the next few years and a long-term price of $1 per pound to make this deal work. Our current assumptions are for cyclical prices of $1.10 per pound and a long-term price of 80 cents," it said.