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"It's our currency and your problem," U.S. Treasury Secretary John Connally famously said of the dollar in 1971.
More than 40 years later, China is doing something about it.
Fed up with what it sees as Washington's malign neglect of the dollar, China is busily promoting the cross-border use of its own currency, the yuan, also known as the renminbi, in trade and investment.
The aim is both narrowly commercial - to reduce transaction costs for Chinese exporters and importers - and sweepingly strategic.
Displacing the dollar, Beijing says, will reduce volatility in oil and commodity prices and belatedly erode the ‘exorbitant privilege' the United States enjoys as the issuer of the reserve currency at the heart of a post-war international financial architecture it now sees as hopelessly outmoded.
Zha Xiaogang, a researcher at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, said Beijing wants to see a better-balanced international monetary system consisting of at least the dollar, euro and yuan and perhaps other currencies such as the yen and the Indian rupee.
Competition among major currency issuers and a wider menu of options when investing, trading or seeking a store of value would produce better results for the world economy, Zha argued.
"The shortcomings of the current international monetary system pose a big threat to China's economy," he said. "With more alternatives, the margin for the U.S. would be greatly narrowed, which will certainly weaken the power basis of the U.S."
Zha's comments were in a paper prepared for a seminar in Bahrain this week on the geopolitics of currencies organized by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London think tank.
SHIFTING SANDS
The great financial crisis, alongside the ascent of China and other emerging markets and the existential threat to the euro, is prompting policymakers in the West, too, to question the established monetary order. Change is in the air.
But with no obvious alternative to the dollar for now, the timing and extent of any shifts in the existing order are inherently unpredictable, much like exchange rates themselves.
While Beijing sees opportunities in using the yuan beyond its borders, others see risks - not least to China itself: relaxing capital controls so foreigners can reinvest their accumulated yuan in China's securities markets is one of the preconditions of reserve currency status.
Yet allowing market-driven money flows to drive exchange and interest rates would weaken the ruling Communist Party's tight grip on two of the main economic levers, potentially sowing the very instability it abhors.
John Williamson, one of the foremost academics on exchange rates, went back to basics and questioned the assumption that reserve currency status confers vast benefits.
Whereas China, Brazil and others have laMBAsted the United States for deliberately cheapening the dollar through loose monetary policies, Williamson argued that U.S. exchange-rate flexibility is actually limited because the dollar is the anchor of the system. It is other countries that adjust their rates; the dollar then adjusts as a "residual".
Of course, the United States gets to finance its payments deficits more cheaply because of demand for dollars from reserve managers, but this might not be enough to outweigh the loss of freedom to manage its exchange rate.
"It is not surprising that many economists have therefore concluded that a reserve currency role is not advisable," said Williamson, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.
He identified only two ways that U.S. power in the world economy is enhanced by the dollar's dominant role, which he does not expect to be challenged in the next quarter century.
First, the $3.2 trillion in official reserves that China has accumulated in maintaining the yuan's semi-fixed peg to the dollar tie Beijing's policy hands. That is because any hostile gesture, such as a threat to shift out of dollars, would destroy Chinese wealth.
Second, because of the extensive private use of the dollar globally, the United States is better able to enforce a financial blockade, such as the one now directed against Iran.
"I have the impression that the additional national power which stems from commanding an international currency tends to be exaggerated by strategic thinkers," he wrote.
ASIAN STRAINS
Yuriko Koike, a former Japanese defense minister, sees the power of currencies through a different prism. She said China was already using its economic might to build a "new model mercantilist imperialism" in Africa.
Turning to Asia, Koike said China's rise was likely to continue to incite as many fears as it does hopes. Beijing's economic clout was one more reason for Japan to put its financial house in order soon.
"So far, Chinese purchases of Japanese government bonds have been negligible, but the potential for China to gain influence over Japan in this regard is real and should be acknowledged," Koike, who was not present to discuss her paper, wrote.
Not surprisingly, Zha, the Shanghai researcher, saw the blossoming of the yuan as the currency equivalent of China's peaceful rise in foreign policy.
Before long, the renminbi would be the de facto common currency of a more economically and financially integrated East Asia that would thus speak with a "more consensus-oriented" regional voice in international affairs. The consensus, he implied, would be set out by China, whose economy would be at least twice as big as Japan's within a decade.
Harsha Vardanha Singh, deputy director-general of the World Trade Organization, said the yuan was the currency most likely to acquire reserve status in years to come.
But, because of the changing patterns of trade and the increase in supply chains, other currencies important in regional trade would assume a much larger significance on the global stage, he argued.
"These various developments will create a much more extensive multi-polar currency world than is usually anticipated," Singh said.
CURRENCY WAR AND PEACE
What does it all mean for the markets?
The phrase "currency wars" inevitably springs to mind as rising economies show their resentment of incumbents, notably the United States, which they view as resorting to maximum monetary stimulus without worrying about the global spillovers.
Surjit Bhalla, an Indian economist, believes massive undervaluation of the yuan was a major reason for China's meteoric rise and the deep economic iMBAlances that led to the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis and the 2008 global crash.
But Bhalla, author of a new book "Devaluing to Prosperity", is convinced that China is shedding its mercantilist skin and switching its development model from exports to consumption-led growth.
He sees little merit in greater international use of the yuan but expects Beijing to push up its real exchange rate by 3-5 percent a year in order to help lift private consumption to at least 50 percent of national output over time from around just 35 percent now.
The result, he said in an interview on the sidelines of the conference, would be an end to talk of currency wars as well as stronger global growth in both advanced economies and emerging markets such as China.
"This will be one of the most remarkable win-win situations of recent times," said Bhalla, chairman of Oxus Investments, a New Delhi hedge fund. "Currency peace is breaking out. There have been currency wars, but now is time to enjoy the peace."
相關中文資料
"這是我們的貨幣,但那是你們自己的問題,"這是1971年時任美國財長John Connally提到美元時的一句名言.
40多年之後的今天,中國正在設法自力救濟.
受夠了美國*惡意忽視美元問題,中國正積極推動人民幣在貿易及投資的跨境使用.
這種作法兼具小部份商業(yè)目的--減少中國進出口業(yè)者的交易成本--及重大戰(zhàn)略考量.
中國*宣稱,美元成為二戰(zhàn)後國際金融架構核心的儲備貨幣,使美國享有過高的特權,但現(xiàn)在已完全不符現(xiàn)實,美元地位遭取代後,石油及大宗商品的波動程度將減少.
上海國際問題研究院研究人員查曉剛指出,北京*希望見到一個更均衡的國際貨幣體系,至少涵蓋美元、歐元、人民幣,可能還有一些其他貨幣,像是日圓及印度盧比.
查曉剛認為,主要貨幣發(fā)行國家之間互相競爭,加上投資、交易或尋求保值的可選擇標的范圍擴大,有利於全球經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展.
"現(xiàn)行國際貨幣體系的缺陷,對中國經(jīng)濟構成一大威脅,"他稱."有了更多其他選擇,美國所享有的余??臻g將大幅縮小,當然也會削弱美國的權力基礎."
查曉剛的評論是來自預定本周在巴林一場研討會發(fā)表的論文,這場研討會由倫敦智庫國際戰(zhàn)略研究所主辦會,主題為貨幣的地緣政治.
美元仍具實力
金融危機、中國和其他新興市場的崛起,加之歐元如今面臨的現(xiàn)實威脅,也迫使西方政界人士開始質疑現(xiàn)有的貨幣體系.變革正在悄然臨近.
不過,由於目前美元并沒有明確的替代貨幣,當前(金融)秩序變革的時機和廣度是不可預測的,這很像匯率本身.
北京認為人民幣的跨境使用能夠帶來機遇,但與此同時,其他人則看到了風險--特別是對於中國自身:放寬資本管制,以便海外投資人士可以將手中聚集的人民幣再投資於中國的證券市場,這是成為儲備貨幣的先決條件之一.
然而,允許以市場為導向的資金流驅動匯率和利率起伏,勢必會弱化政府的嚴格管控,可能埋下不穩(wěn)定的種子,而這正是北京不愿看到的.
外匯知名學者John Williamson追根溯源,對儲備貨幣地位能夠帶來巨大利益的觀點提出了質疑.
中國、巴西和其他國家都在指責美國透過寬松貨幣政策,故意讓美元貶值,而Williamson指出,美元匯率彈性其實是有限的,因為美元是整個貨幣體系的核心.實際上是其他國家先調整匯率,美元才會作出應對.
誠然,因為儲備管理者對美元的需求,美國的確可以通過更為低廉的美元來為收支逆差融資,但是與失去能夠自由管理匯率的權力相比,或許尚不足以彌補這種落差.
"許多經(jīng)濟學家由此得出追求儲備貨幣并不明智的結論,這并不讓人感到意外."Williamson表示.他是彼得森國際經(jīng)濟研究所的資深研究員.
他認為,美元的統(tǒng)治地位只通過兩種方式增強了美國在全球經(jīng)濟中的實力.同時他認為未來25年內美元的地位還不會受到挑戰(zhàn).
首先,中國在保持人民幣"半盯住"美元的過程中積累起了3.2兆(萬億)官方儲備,但反而束縛了政府的手腳.因為一旦有任何敵對動作,例如威脅出脫美元,將會令中國的財富縮水.
第二,由於全球范圍內民間都在大量使用美元,美國更有能力實施金融封鎖,譬如目前正在對伊朗實施的金融制裁.
"我的觀點是,戰(zhàn)略家們夸大了由國際儲備貨幣給國家實力帶來的提升效果,"他寫道.
亞洲局勢緊張
曾任日本防衛(wèi)大臣的小池百合子從另外一個角度詮釋貨幣力量.她指出,中國已經(jīng)在非洲運用經(jīng)濟力量來打造一個"新的商業(yè)帝國主義模型".
說到亞洲,小池百合子稱中國的崛起料將繼續(xù)引發(fā)許多區(qū)域恐慌,正如中國所希望造成的威懾作用一樣.鑒於中國所展現(xiàn)出的經(jīng)濟力量,這是促使日本盡快讓其金融體系變得有序的重要原因.
"迄今為止,中國購買的日本公債數(shù)量還可以基本忽略不計,但中國未來在這方面對日本施加潛在影響的風險卻是真實存在的,需要認識到這一點."小池百合子說到.
查曉剛認為,人民幣的崛起與中國在外交政策方面的和平興起是相輔相成的.他有這樣的觀點并不奇怪.
不久的將來,人民幣或會成為東亞地區(qū)真正的通用貨幣,屆時的東亞在經(jīng)濟和金融領域將更為一體化,在國際事務上也將發(fā)出更為共同一致的聲音.據(jù)查曉剛暗示,這個共同聲音的基調將由中國來確立,中國的經(jīng)濟規(guī)模在未來十年內料將至少達到日本的兩倍.
世界貿易組織(WTO)的副總干事辛格(Harsha Vardanha Singh)指出,在將來的數(shù)年間,人民幣是最有可能獲得儲備貨幣地位的貨幣.
但是他也表示,鑒於貿易模式的改變以及供應鏈的增多,其它重要的地區(qū)貨幣料也將在國際舞臺上發(fā)揮越來越重要的影響."諸多發(fā)展變化將打造出一個比我們慣常想象中更為廣泛的多極貨幣體系世界."
貨幣戰(zhàn)爭與和平共處
那麼對於市場而言,這些變化到底意味著什麼呢?
隨著新興經(jīng)濟體對於現(xiàn)有的"老大們"--首當其沖的就是美國--表現(xiàn)出越來越多的不滿,"貨幣戰(zhàn)爭"這個耳熟能詳?shù)脑~匯就不可避免的躍入腦海.在很多新興國家看來,那些所謂的發(fā)達國家動輒就使用巨額貨幣刺激手段,而根本不顧及由此給全球帶來的波及效應.
印度經(jīng)濟學家Surjit Bhalla認為,人民幣被大幅低估是推動中國經(jīng)濟迅猛崛起并造成經(jīng)濟嚴重失衡局面的主要原因.1997/98年的亞洲金融危機和2008年的全球信貸危機都在一定程度上源於經(jīng)濟失衡.
作為新書"貶值到繁榮(Devaluing to Prosperity)"的作者,Surjit Bhalla頗為肯定的認為,中國正在褪去其重商主義的外衣,改變其發(fā)展模型,逐步從出口導向型經(jīng)濟轉向消費帶動的增長模式.
他認為人民幣獲得更多的國際使用地位不會帶來多少益處,但他預計中國政府將會每年把人民幣實質匯率推高3-5%,以便將民間消費占國內產(chǎn)出的比重從當前的約35%逐漸提高到至少50%.
他在場邊接受采訪時表示,如此作為料將可以終止有關貨幣戰(zhàn)爭的談論,并帶來更強勁的全球經(jīng)濟增長,發(fā)達和發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟體都會從中受益,自然也包括中國.
"這將是最值得期待的雙贏局面,"Bhalla表示,"貨幣和平正在破繭而出.我們一直經(jīng)歷著貨幣戰(zhàn)爭,但現(xiàn)在是時候享受和平了."