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    新概念英語第四冊Lesson14原文及翻譯
    The Butterfly Effect
    蝴蝶效應(yīng)
    Why do small errors make it impossible to predict the weather system with a high degree of accuracy?
    Beyond two or three days, the world's best weather forecasts are speculative, and beyond six or seven they are worthless.
    The Butterfly Effect is the reason. For small pieces of weather -- and to a global forecaster, small can mean thunderstorms and blizzards -- any prediction deteriorates rapidly. Errors and uncertainties multiply, cascading upward through a chain of turbulent features, from dust devils and squalls up to continent-size eddies that only satellites can see.
    The modern weather models work with a grid of points of the order of sixty miles apart, and even so, some starting data has to guessed, since ground stations and satellites cannot see everywhere. But suppose the earth could be covered with sensors spaced one foot apart, rising at one-foot intervals all the way to the top of the atmosphere. Suppose every sensor gives perfectly accurate readings of temperature, pressure, humidity, and any other quantity a meteorologist would want. Precisely at noon an infinitely powerful computer takes all the data and calculates what will happen at each point at 12.01, then 1202, then 12.03...
    The computer will still be unable to predict whether Princeton, New Jersey, will have sun or rain on a day one month away. At noon the spaces between the sensors will hide fluctuations that the computer will not know about, tiny deviations from the average. By 12.01, those fluctuations will already have created small errors one foot away. Soon the errors will have multiplied to the ten-foot scale, and so on up to the size of the globe.
    JAMES GLEICK, Chaos
    New words and expressions 生詞和短語
    forecast
    n. 預(yù)報
    speculative
    adj. 推測的
    blizzard
    n. 暴風(fēng)雪
    deteriorate
    v. 變壞
    multiply
    v. 增加
    cascade
    v. 瀑布似地落下
    turbulent
    adj. 狂暴的
    dust devil
    小塵暴，塵旋風(fēng)
    squall
    n. 暴風(fēng)
    eddy
    n. 旋渦
    grid
    n. 坐標(biāo)方格
    sensor
    n. 傳感器
    humidity
    n. 溫度
    meteorologist
    n. 氣象學(xué)家
    Princeton
    n. 普林斯頓(美國城市名)
    New Jersey
    n. 新澤西(美國州名)
    fluctuation
    n. 起伏，波動
    deviation
    n. 偏差
    參考譯文
    世界上的兩三天以上的天氣預(yù)報具有很強的猜測性，如果超過六七天，天氣預(yù)報就沒有了任何價值。
    原因是蝴蝶效應(yīng)。對于小片的惡劣天氣 -- 對一個全球性的氣象預(yù)報員來說，“小”可以意味著雷暴雨和暴風(fēng)雪 -- 任何預(yù)測的質(zhì)量會很快下降。錯誤和不可靠性上升，接踵而來的是一系列湍流的徵狀，從小塵暴和暴風(fēng)發(fā)展到只有衛(wèi)星上可以看到的席卷整塊大陸的旋渦。
    現(xiàn)代氣象模型以一個坐標(biāo)圖來顯示，圖中每個點大約是間隔60英里。既使是這樣，有些開始時的資料也不得不依靠推測，因為地面工作站和衛(wèi)星不可能看到地球上的每一個地方。假設(shè)地球上可以布滿傳感器，每個相隔1英尺，并按1英尺的間隔從地面一直排列到大氣層的頂端。再假定每個傳感器都極極端準(zhǔn)確地讀出了溫度、氣壓、溫度和氣象學(xué)家需要的任何其他數(shù)據(jù)。在正午時分，一個功能巨大的計算機搜集了所有的資料，并算出在每一個點上12：01、12：02、12：03時可能出現(xiàn)的情況。
    計算機無法推斷出1個月以后的某一天，新澤西州的普林斯頓究竟是晴天還是雨天。正午時分，傳感器之間的距離會掩蓋計算機無法知道的波動、任何偏平均值的變化。到12：01時，那些波動就已經(jīng)會在1英尺遠(yuǎn)的地方造成偏差。很快這種偏差會增加到尺10英的范圍，如此等等，一直到全球的范圍。
    新概念英語第四冊Lesson15原文及翻譯
    Secrecy in industry
    工業(yè)中的秘密
    First listen and then answer the following question.
    聽錄音，然后回答以下問題。
    Why is secrecy particularly important in the chemical industries?
    Two factors weigh heavily against the effectiveness of scientific research in industry. One is the general atmosphere of secrecy in which it is carried out, the other the lack of freedom of the individual research worker. In so far as any inquiry is a secret one, it naturally limits all those engaged in carrying it out from effective contact with their fellow scientists either in other countries or in universities, or even, often enough, in other departments of the same firm. The degree of secrecy naturally varies considerably. Some of the bigger firms are engaged in researches which are of such general and fundamental nature that it is a positive advantage to them not to keep them secret. Yet a great many processes depending on such research are sought for with complete secrecy until the stage at which patents can be taken out. Even more processes are never patented at all but kept as secret processes. This applies particularly to chemical industries, where chance discoveries play a much larger part than they do in physical and mechanical industries. Sometimes the secrecy goes to such an extent that the whole nature of the research cannot be mentioned. Many firms, for instance, have great difficulty in obtaining technical or scientific books from libraries because they are unwilling to have names entered as having taken out such and such a book, for fear the agents of other firms should be able to trace the kind of research they are likely to be undertaking.
    J.D. BERNAL The Social Function of Science
    New words and expressions
    secrecy
    n. 秘密
    effectiveness
    n. 成效，效力
    inquiry
    n. 調(diào)查研究
    positive
    adj. 確實的
    process
    n. 過程
    patent
    n. 專利;
    v. 得到專利權(quán)
    agent
    n. 情報人員
    參考譯文
    有兩個因素嚴(yán)重地妨礙工業(yè)中科學(xué)研究的效率：一是科研工作中普遍存在的保密氣氛;二是研究人員缺乏個人自由。任何一項研究都涉及到保密，那些從事科研的人員自然受到了限制。他們不能和其他國家、其他大學(xué)、甚至往往不能與本公司的其他部門的同行們進(jìn)行有效的接觸。保密程度自然差別很大。某些大公司進(jìn)行的研究屬于一般和基礎(chǔ)的研究，因此不保密對他們才有利。然而，依賴這種研究的很多工藝程序是在完全保密的情況下進(jìn)行的，直到可以取得專利權(quán)的階段為止。更多的工藝過程根本就不會取得專利權(quán)，而是作為秘方保存著。在這化學(xué)工業(yè)方面尤為突出。同物理和機械工業(yè)相比，化學(xué)工業(yè)中偶然發(fā)現(xiàn)的機會要多得多。有時，保密竟達(dá)到了這樣的程度，即連研究工作的整個性質(zhì)都不準(zhǔn)提及。比如，很多公司向圖書館借閱科技書籍時感到困難，因為它們不愿讓人家記下它們公司的名字和借閱的某一本書。他們生怕別的公司的情報人員據(jù)此摸到他們可能要從事的某項科研項目。
    新概念英語第四冊Lesson16原文及翻譯
    The modern city
    現(xiàn)代城市
    What is the author's main argument about the modern city?
    In the organization of industrial life the influence of the factory upon the physiological and mental state of the workers has been completely neglected. Modern industry is based on the conception of the maximum production at lowest cost, in order that an individual or a group of individuals may earn as much money as possible. It has expanded without any idea of the true nature of the human beings who run the machines, and without giving any consideration to the effects produced on the individuals and on their descendants by the artificial mode of existence imposed by the factory. The great cities have been built with no regard for us. The shape and dimensions of the skyscrapers depend entirely on the necessity of obtaining the maximum income per square foot of ground, and of offering to the tenants offices and apartments that please them. This caused the construction of gigantic buildings where too large masses of human beings are crowded together. Civilized men like such a way of living. While they enjoy the comfort and banal luxury of their dwelling, they do not realize that they are deprived of the necessities of life. The modern city consists of monstrous edifices and of dark, narrow streets full of petrol fumes and toxic gases, torn by the noise of the taxicabs, lorries and buses, and thronged ceaselessly by great crowds. Obviously, it has not been planned for the good of its inhabitants.
    ALEXIS CARREL Man, the Unknown
    New words and expressions 生詞和短語
    physiological
    adj. 生理的
    maximum
    adj. 限度的
    consideration
    n. 考慮
    descendant
    n. 子孫，后代
    artificial
    n. 人工的
    impose
    v. 強加
    dimension
    n. 直徑
    skyscraper
    n. 摩天大樓
    tenant
    n. 租戶
    civilized
    adj. 文明的
    banal
    adj. 平庸
    luxury
    n. 豪華
    deprive
    v. 剝奪
    monstrous
    adj. 畸形的
    edifice
    n. 大廈
    toxic
    adj. 有毒的
    ceaselessly
    adv. 不停地
    throng
    v. 擠滿，壅塞
    參考譯文
    在工業(yè)生活的組織中，工廠對工人的生理和精神狀態(tài)的影響完全被忽視了?，F(xiàn)代工業(yè)的基本概念是：以最低成本獲取最多產(chǎn)品，為的是讓某個個人或某一部分人盡可能多地賺錢?，F(xiàn)代工業(yè)發(fā)展起來了，卻根本沒想到操作機器的人的本質(zhì)。工廠把一種人為的生存方式強加給工人，卻不顧及這種生存方式給工人及其后代帶來的影響。大城市的建設(shè)毫不關(guān)心我們。摩天大樓完全是按這樣的需要修建的：每平方英尺地皮取得收入和向租房人提供使他滿意的辦公室和住房。這樣就導(dǎo)致了許多摩天大廈拔地而起，大廈內(nèi)眾多的人擠地一起。文明人喜歡這樣一種生活方式。在享受自己住宅的舒適和庸俗的豪華時，卻沒有意識到被剝奪了生活所必需的東西。大得嚇人的高樓和陰暗狹窄的街道組成了今日現(xiàn)代化的城市。街道上充斥著汽油味和有毒氣體，出租汽車、卡車、公共汽車的噪音刺耳難忍，絡(luò)繹不絕的人群擠來擠去。顯然，現(xiàn)代化的城市不是這居民的利益而規(guī)劃的。